Tariffs on Tensions: How the US-Canada Trade War Will Play Out in Key Midterm States

The simmering trade war between the United States and Canada has been a slow-burning fire, but its embers are about to ignite in some of the most critical midterm battlegrounds. As tit-for-tat tariffs escalate, economists warn that consumers and businesses in states near the northern border will feel the pinch.

Maine’s economy is particularly vulnerable. The state’s tourism industry, which includes Barters Island Bees’ honey sales, has already suffered from a decline in Canadian visitors last year. CEO Garret Denniston says his company’s 75% revenue surge this year may be short-lived if tensions continue to rise. “We thank Canadian tourists every time we see them,” he quips wryly.

The stakes are high in Maine, where Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed is already criticizing Republican Rep. Mike Rogers’ support for President Trump’s trade policies. In a social media post, El-Sayed accused Rogers of being a “rubber stamp” for Trump, who he claims is escalating the trade war for personal gain. The White House retorts that tariffs are about putting Americans first.

However, economists point out that the effects will be most pronounced in states with strong ties to Canada. In fact, Canada is the top foreign buyer of exports from 26 US states and the top source of imports for 22 states, according to an analysis by the Royal Bank of Canada. Maine and Michigan rank among the top 10 states in combined annual import-export business with Canada, while Ohio comes in as the 15th-highest state.

For Michigan, a potential escalation would be disastrous. The auto sector is already reeling from President Trump’s tariffs, and decimating supply chains and threatening jobs is no idle threat – it’s a very real consequence of Trump’s trade strategy, warns Glenn Stevens Jr., executive director of MichAuto. As tensions rise, so do the politics.

In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins will need to tread carefully in her Senate campaign against Democratic challenger Sara Gideon. With El-Sayed already staking his claim on trade policy, Collins’ campaign is no doubt watching with bated breath.

The trade war has created a peculiar dynamic: politicians are seizing on tariffs as a rallying cry for their base, even as economists warn of the devastating consequences. This case study in how politics can trump economics will only intensify as midterm elections approach, putting voters in key states like Maine and Michigan in an increasingly difficult position.