Strait of Consequences: Trump’s Bluff or a Warning to Oman?

The expiration of the US-Iran war agreement on Monday (Washington time) has brought the simmering conflict back into focus, with President Donald Trump making good on his promise to create chaos. In a recent interview with Fox News, Trump threatened to bomb US ally Oman if it “gets in the way” of reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Oman’s involvement is significant because it has been quietly working with Iran to manage the strait, as stipulated by the Memorandum of Understanding signed by the US and Iran in June. The country has long been seen as a moderating influence on Iranian behavior and has hosted several rounds of secret negotiations between the US and Iran.

Trump’s remarks come on the heels of a record-breaking deployment by the US Navy in the region, with the USS Abraham Lincoln stationed off Iran’s coast for months. This may be more than just a coincidence: could Trump’s bombast be a deliberate attempt to ratchet up pressure on Oman and Tehran?

Historically, such tactics have not proven effective in achieving American foreign policy goals. The US has been trying to strangle Iran economically with sanctions that have driven the country further into isolation. As Brent crude oil prices soar above $US90 a barrel, it’s clear that this approach is failing.

Moreover, Trump’s repeated threats to declare the Strait of Hormuz a US territory are empty words. Such a move would require significant diplomatic and legal gymnastics, not to mention a complete rewrite of international maritime law. It’s unclear what tangible benefits such a declaration would yield for the US or its allies.

Iran’s position on the conflict remains unchanged, with analysts warning that the regime will not capitulate even in the face of unprecedented economic pressure. This is not surprising: researcher Danny Citrinowicz noted last week, “In the choice between submission and escalation, Iran will choose escalation.”

As tensions continue to simmer, it’s clear that the Middle East stalemate shows no signs of resolution anytime soon. Oman, Iran, and their respective partners are caught in a precarious situation – but Trump’s bombast is unlikely to be the decisive factor in brokering a lasting peace.

The Strait of Hormuz has become a strategic focal point in the ongoing struggle between Washington and Tehran. Will Trump follow through on his threats, or will he quietly back down when faced with diplomatic pushback from Oman? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: the situation remains volatile and unpredictable.