The Conflict Effect: How War Redraws Our Holiday Maps

Conflict has a way of disrupting travel plans, whether it’s a pandemic or a regional war. The Middle East conflict is no exception, reshaping where we holiday in both surprising and predictable ways.

Tourist numbers from Western Balkans countries – Albania, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Slovenia – are on the rise, while those to the east – Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Turkey – are declining. This shift can be attributed to several factors. Many of these countries have invested in tourist infrastructure, making them more attractive to visitors. Tour operators have also expanded their itineraries to include previously overlooked nations.

However, the link between war in the Middle East and increased tourism to the Balkans is complex. The surge in conflict has led airlines to increase costs, reduce capacity, and alter flight routes – making travel uncomfortable for some. Safety concerns are undoubtedly a factor, particularly for Western travelers.

The impact on global tourism extends beyond Europe. Jordan’s visitor numbers have dwindled further, while Lebanon’s tourism industry, which was showing signs of revival in 2025, has been stymied once again. Gulf countries like the UAE and Oman are working hard to reassure travelers they’re safe and welcoming – yet reduced flights and shaken confidence continue to keep visitor numbers below pre-war levels.

The war’s effects have also been felt beyond the Middle East region itself. In Asia, destinations served by Gulf carriers (Etihad, Emirates, and Qatar) have suffered significantly. UN Tourism figures show that South Asia recorded a five percent decline in tourist numbers in the first six months of this year compared to 2025, while Southeast Asia saw a one percent drop.

Traveler behavior is changing too. In times of crisis, we often reach for familiarity – as seen with increased travel to well-known destinations like Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia. The World Cup in North America has also made it difficult to assess its impact on tourism, due to the pull factor combined with regional politics.

Meanwhile, countries across the Atlantic are benefiting from our desire for stability. South and Central America – particularly Brazil – are witnessing a surge in tourist numbers. British tourists, in particular, are flocking to destinations like Brazil (up 11.61 percent this year), drawn by the promise of sunshine and familiarity.

As we adapt to these changing travel landscapes, one thing is clear: conflict will continue to reshape where we holiday. While it’s impossible to predict the next crisis, understanding its effects on our travel habits can help us better prepare for the future.