The Fog of War: How Vance’s Casualty Discount Undermines US Credibility in Iran Conflict

The fog of war is a familiar trope, but it’s rare to see it deployed as a deflection tool by senior officials. Vice President JD Vance invoked the murky nature of modern warfare when downplaying reports of a US strike killing five people at a wedding gathering in southern Iran.

Vance’s response – “sometimes things happen” – suggested that civilian casualties are an inevitable byproduct of conflict. This attitude is insensitive and undermines US credibility on the global stage. The Iranian Red Crescent had confirmed the toll, making it harder for Vance to dismiss these reports as propaganda.

By characterizing the conflict as not being a “war,” Vance creates an impression that the US is engaged in a nebulous operation rather than a full-scale military engagement. However, this spin ignores the reality on the ground, where intense fighting between the US and Iran has been ongoing for months.

Vance’s refusal to provide a timeline for ending the US war on Iran speaks volumes about the administration’s strategy. By not committing to a specific deadline, he leaves room for an open-ended conflict that can be prolonged indefinitely. This approach is reminiscent of Vietnam-era tactics, where policymakers would often downplay the scale and duration of military operations.

The war with Iran has entered its seventh month, with no clear end in sight. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely impacted, with only four commodity vessels crossing the key waterway on Thursday. This disruption to global energy markets is a significant consequence of the conflict.

Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, has warned that growing economic pressure could push Tehran to take “desperate steps.” While this assessment is likely true, it raises questions about the long-term strategy of the US and its allies. Are we willing to continue propping up an economy on the brink of collapse, or do we need to rethink our approach?

Donald Trump’s rejection of reports that US military stockpiles are running low strains credulity, especially given the prolonged nature of the conflict. His assertion that the US is producing munitions at “levels never seen before” is dubious.

The war with Iran is not just about military strategy or economic leverage; it’s also about global credibility and the responsibility that comes with wielding power. Policymakers would do well to remember that sometimes things don’t just happen – they are made possible by choices and decisions.

Ultimately, Vance’s casual dismissal of civilian casualties is a symptom of a larger problem: an administration willing to sacrifice its moral authority for short-term gains. As long as we continue down this path, the fog of war will only grow thicker, obscuring our vision and imperiling our global standing.